Seasonality Top 10 – October 2025
Seasonality Top 10 Optionable Picks – October 2025 Expiry: October 17, 2025
This list is built from historical price seasonality for the October expiry window (October 17, 2025), ranked by Win Rate (%) with Samples ≥ 10, then by Avg Return to This Expiry (%). Use it to spot names that historically lean bullish into this month—then confirm with options metrics (ROO %, delta, OI) and earnings timing in the screener.
How to Read This (Seasonality)
- Win Rate (%): Share of years the stock closed higher by this expiry compared to the lookback start for this month.
- Samples: Number of historical observations used. We require Samples ≥ 10 for robustness.
- Avg Return to This Expiry (%): Mean % move over those samples up to the target expiry date.
Pair With These Options Metrics
- ROO % (Return on Option): Premium yield for the current chain/expiry window (not annualized). Balance vs. assignment risk using delta and ITM/OTM.
- Scouter Score (1–10): Optrader’s quality composite across fundamentals, technicals, and liquidity (higher is better).
- News Sentiment (−1 to +1): Recent news tone; look for alignment (positive tone into a bullish seasonal window).
🔟 Seasonality Leaders (Optionable, Samples ≥ 10)
- USDU — Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Win Rate: 81.8% | Samples: 11 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 0.99% - ESLT — Elbit Systems Ltd.
Win Rate: 78.9% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 3.33% - GD — General Dynamics Corporation
Win Rate: 78.9% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 0.37% - VOC — VOC Energy Trust
Win Rate: 78.6% | Samples: 14 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 3.53% - USAC — USA Compression Partners, LP
Win Rate: 75.0% | Samples: 12 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 4.38% - SAIC — Science Applications International Corp.
Win Rate: 75.0% | Samples: 12 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 3.58% - SJT — San Juan Basin Royalty Trust
Win Rate: 73.7% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 5.46% - THO — Thor Industries, Inc.
Win Rate: 73.7% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 4.39% - NGS — Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.
Win Rate: 73.7% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 3.47% - MUR — Murphy Oil Corporation
Win Rate: 73.7% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 2.42%
How to Use This Shortlist
- Prefer liquid chains with tight spreads and strong open interest.
- Check for earnings within 30 days of expiry; consider shifting ITM/OTM or skipping if risk is misaligned.
- Map your strike to historical avg return: if Avg Return is modest, favor slightly ITM for higher adjusted ROO; if stronger, consider ATM/OTM with deltas you trust.
FAQ
How is the Seasonality Top 10 list constructed?
We rank optionable symbols by seasonal win rate for October using historical data. Only symbols with Samples ≥ 10 are included, then ties are ordered by Avg Return to the Oct 17, 2025 expiry.
How should I use seasonality with options metrics?
Combine seasonality with ROO %, delta, open interest, and earnings timing in the screener. If Avg Return is modest, consider slightly ITM strikes for higher adjusted ROO; if stronger, ATM/OTM with deltas you trust.
Is Samples ≥ 10 strict?
Yes. We require at least 10 historical observations for robustness. You can explore lower-sample names in the screener, but interpret results with caution.
⚠️ Informational only; not investment advice. Historical seasonality does not guarantee future performance. Always validate with current data.
