Seasonality Top 10 – October 2025
Seasonality Top 10 – October 2025 Expiry: October 17, 2025
This list is built from historical price seasonality for the October expiry window (October 17, 2025), ranked by Win Rate (%) with Samples > 10, then by Avg Return to This Expiry (%). Use it to spot names that historically lean bullish into this month—then confirm with options metrics (ROO %, delta, OI) and earnings timing in the screener.
How to Read This (Seasonality)
- Win Rate (%): Share of years the stock closed higher by this expiry compared to the lookback start for this month.
- Samples: Number of historical observations used. We require Samples > 10 for robustness.
- Avg Return to This Expiry (%): Mean % move over those samples up to the target expiry date.
Pair With These Options Metrics
- ROO % (Return on Option): Premium yield for the current chain/expiry window (not annualized). Balance vs. assignment risk using delta and ITM/OTM.
- Scouter Score (1–10): Optrader’s quality composite across fundamentals, technicals, and liquidity (higher is better).
- News Sentiment (−1 to +1): Recent news tone; look for alignment (positive tone into a bullish seasonal window).
🔟 Seasonality Leaders (Samples > 10)
- NFLX
Win Rate: 68.4% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 2.81% - EOG
Win Rate: 68.4% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 2.18% - AER
Win Rate: 66.7% | Samples: 18 | Avg Return to This Expiry: -1.20% - MPC
Win Rate: 64.3% | Samples: 14 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 3.61% - TRGP
Win Rate: 64.3% | Samples: 14 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 2.12% - SCCO
Win Rate: 63.2% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 1.49% - LMT
Win Rate: 63.2% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: 0.61% - CTSH
Win Rate: 63.2% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: -0.02% - CF
Win Rate: 63.2% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: -0.06% - DLR
Win Rate: 63.2% | Samples: 19 | Avg Return to This Expiry: -0.44%
How to Use This Shortlist
- Prefer liquid chains with tight spreads and strong open interest.
- Check for earnings within 30 days of expiry; consider shifting ITM/OTM or skipping if risk is misaligned.
- Map your strike to historical avg return: if Avg Return is modest, favor slightly ITM for higher adjusted ROO; if stronger, consider ATM/OTM with deltas you trust.
⚠️ Informational only; not investment advice. Historical seasonality does not guarantee future performance. Always validate with current data.
